Future of Internet Backbone

Update

Since writing this article others have also been writing about the same issue, here are two good articles which shed more light on this issue.

Welcome to my students starting the Cisco IT Essentials course in Alice Springs and Darwin. In this blog I want to talk about the problem with the backbone of the Internet and what is happening to fix it.

The Internet works using a protocol called IP (Internet Protocol) which is transmitted through the phone and telecommunications system using a protocol called TCP (Transmission Control Protocol). The whole thing is wrapped up in the term TCP/IP which this tutorial from W3Schools explains really well.

Every server on the Internet has an IP address and you need one to access the internet. Whoever gives you access (school, University or ISP) gives you an IP address when you log onto their system. This IP address can be used to track your movements and activities while on the Internet. This website will show you your IP address and tries to work out where in the world you are.

This system has worked really well since it was first established in the early 1980s. However it faces a problem today, we are running out of IP addresses. When this happens (see clock) no new servers will be able to connect to the Internet.

The version of IP (called IPv4) that we use currently uses 4 sets of 32bit numbers (like 192.168.0.0), which means we have 2 to the power of 32 or 4,294,967,296 addresses available. (actually less than that because some are reserved for other things) A newer version of IP called IPv6 uses uses 128 bit octets (like 2001:0db8:85a3:08d3:1319:8a2e:0370:7334), which means that we have 2 to the power of 128 or (rounded version sorry none of my programs could calculate the actual number) 300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 possible addresses. To put this in perspective, if every person on earth used a billion addresses each, there would still be plenty left over.

So how long before IPv6 is ready to use? To change over all the parts of the internet must be able to use IPv6, browsers, operating systems, physical equipment, logical control systems, supporting software etc. Most of this is in place now, here is a list of current sites that can only be accessed if you are using IPv6, see whether you can see them.

The browsers and operating systems have been ready since 2000, switching gear has also been made compatible and some small systems have already made the change. So anything build or bought in the last 10 years should be right, but there is an great deal of infrastructure on the internet that is older than that. Australia is ahead of the pack in getting ready for this. There is a conference later on this year to discuss this very issue. The issue for the ISPs is not when to switch, but how to enable both to the run side by side. The browsers have no difficulty with this but other control aspects do have a number of technical and control issues. All the various protocols of TCP/IP (see the tutorial earlier) must be able to work with information in both formats. Cisco has been working on this for 10 years so many of the issues have been solved in the lab and now need to be tested in the field. Internode already has started trialling an implementation while the other major ISPs are working on this as well.

I would suggest that what will probably happen is that the ISPs will gradually switch over to IPv6 but still maintain IPv4. This means that your browser will use the most appropriate IP version during a transition stage and both will run side by side for a while. One day when you check your IP address it will be a strange new number, rather than the familiar one. You probably won't notice any other difference. For the average user this change will not be noticeable, it will just be a huge headache for those trying to administer the system.

Internet TV, how close is it??

If you want to watch TV shows in Australia you use to have two options, either wait for the show to appear on a TV channel that broadcasts for free or buy a pay TV contract and get multiple channels. If however you wanted to watch the show at your convenience, not just follow the TV guide, you had to wait for the show to come out on DVD.

That is now changing. Already the ABC is streaming many of its shows on the Internet using Iview. Here you can watch a show up to 2 weeks after it was broadcast on your computer. Other TV stations have a similar service but not as well implemented as the ABC (SBS limited quality and TEN limited range) or have withdrawn it (Seven and Nine). (Correction: This situation has now changed, Channel 7 have introduced a service very similar to Iview on the ABC. This service is called PLUS7 and looks to be good quality and with many shows available soon after they are broadcast. The range looks very good, well done Channel 7.)

There are also devices such as TIVO which allow you to record shows well in advance and be able to play them back at your convenience.

In the US there is a service called HULU which streams hundreds of shows from many different channels, however Australia (and the rest of the world) is blocked from using this service. Itunes also offers some shows but the range is not great and the cost is higher than buying DVDs if you want the whole series.

Very many computer users want to use such a service and the lack of availability is driving many of them to illegal downloads.

Now Google has moved into this market. They see a market for widespread TV show and Movie streaming on the Internet. The two largest traffic sites on the Internet at the moment are Hulu and YouTube. Google owns YouTube and wants it to become a TV stations streaming to the world. They have made a start by stream the IPL live and repeats. This will test the market for them.

Google are also talking to TV manufacturers so that Internet TV can come into the house directly to the TV and not the computer.

How long will it be before home users can watch any TV show available in the world at any time (TV on demand)? I will predict that this will occur one minute after someone works out how to make money from this form of delivery. If the TV stations won't do it, someone else (like Google) will.

Soon no more point and click

Apple Ipads will go on sale in Australia next month. The Ipad is a new type of device, its not a phone, not a laptop, not an ereader, but a better described as a portable media device, if you need to describe it at all. However it does not support Flash (which is how most multimedia on the internet is delivered) which leaves it open to competition from HP's Slate, which does support Flash. It will be interesting to see how this competition plays out. Steve Jobs and Apple have often been at the cutting edge of technology and brought us devices that we did not even know we needed (Mac and Ipod) but they have also failed (remember the Lisa and NeXT).

Whichever way it goes, it seems likely that the days of using the mouse as a major input device are numbered, and it can't come quickly enough. There are few current alternatives to using the mouse on computers. There are some newer desktops available like Bumptop and there has been the ability to use voice control for a long time, but none of these have threaten the use of the mouse.

Graphic artists have long ago thrown the mouse away in favour of a stylus, but this has not gained wide acceptance.

Now, with the ipad/slate and their touch screens we have the chance to develop real touch screen input techniques, not related to mouse type point and click but using real or two handed gestures. This demonstration shows what is possible using these techniques, while Sixth sense (See previous blog) also shows what is possible if we put away the mouse.

For me I can't wait. This opens up so many possiblities. It is always interesting looking into the future of computing to see what could be coming...